Days 1-14 are a real forecast from global weather models. Days 15-30 are season-typical values based on SMHI climate normals 1991-2020 — good for planning, NOT an exact forecast that far ahead.
30 days — Motala
14 real + 16 synthesised
Wed · Today Showers
+21°+15°5,0 mm
Thu · Tomorrow Showers
+21°+16°0,8 mm
Friday 7/8 Showers
+20°+15°0,8 mm
Saturday 8/8 Partly cloudy
+21°+13°0,2 mm
Sunday 9/8 Partly cloudy
+23°+13°0,1 mm
Monday 10/8 Partly cloudy
+20°+14°1,3 mm
Tuesday 11/8 Clear
+20°+12°4%
Wednesday 12/8 Clear
+19°+9°3%
Thursday 13/8 Partly cloudy
+21°+12°5%
Friday 14/8 Showers
+16°+14°0,5 mm
Saturday 15/8 Showers
+20°+14°10,0 mm
Sunday 16/8 Partly cloudy
+16°+13°21,3 mm
Monday 17/8 Showers
+20°+14°0,6 mm
Tuesday 18/8 Showers
+20°+14°1,7 mm
Wednesday 19/8 Rain (climate normal)
+23°+13°7,3 mm
Thursday 20/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+24°+13°20%
Friday 21/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+25°+14°20%
Saturday 22/8 Rain (climate normal)
+24°+13°5,9 mm
Sunday 23/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+22°+12°20%
Monday 24/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+20°+11°20%
Tuesday 25/8 Rain (climate normal)
+20°+11°5,1 mm
Wednesday 26/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+22°+13°20%
Thursday 27/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+26°+15°20%
Friday 28/8 Rain (climate normal)
+25°+14°3,5 mm
Saturday 29/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+23°+13°20%
Sunday 30/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+22°+12°20%
Monday 31/8 Rain (climate normal)
+20°+11°5,9 mm
Tuesday 1/9 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+16°+8°20%
Wednesday 2/9 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+19°+10°20%
Thursday 3/9 Rain (climate normal)
+19°+10°3,1 mm
How does the long-range forecast work?
Days 1-14: Fetched live from global weather models (ECMWF, GFS) with statistical correction. Reliability ~85% for days 1-3, ~60% for days 7-10, ~45% for days 11-14.
Days 15-30: A real forecast does not exist that far ahead (a chaotic system). Instead we show season-typical values: the month’s average Tmax/Tmin from SMHI climate normals 1991-2020 (Stockholm baseline with latitude correction for Motala), with mild weekly variation.
Use: "Roughly how warm is it usually in Stockholm in the last week of July?" — a good question for days 15-30. "Will it rain on 27 May?" — no serious forecast can say.