Days 1-14 are a real forecast from global weather models. Days 15-30 are season-typical values based on SMHI climate normals 1991-2020 — good for planning, NOT an exact forecast that far ahead.
30 days — Skellefteå
14 real + 16 synthesised
Wed · Today Clear
+18°+8°0,8 mm
Thu · Tomorrow Drizzle
+14°+12°19,3 mm
Friday 7/8 Showers
+16°+11°2,8 mm
Saturday 8/8 Partly cloudy
+17°+9°0,6 mm
Sunday 9/8 Showers
+19°+10°1,6 mm
Monday 10/8 Clear
+18°+11°5%
Tuesday 11/8 Clear
+18°+10°0,4 mm
Wednesday 12/8 Clear
+18°+8°4%
Thursday 13/8 Cloudy
+18°+12°19%
Friday 14/8 Partly cloudy
+15°+10°0,1 mm
Saturday 15/8 Showers
+14°+10°0,6 mm
Sunday 16/8 Showers
+17°+10°1,5 mm
Monday 17/8 Partly cloudy
+15°+9°0,6 mm
Tuesday 18/8 Partly cloudy
+17°+11°0,1 mm
Wednesday 19/8 Rain (climate normal)
+16°+6°6,2 mm
Thursday 20/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+18°+8°20%
Friday 21/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+21°+9°20%
Saturday 22/8 Rain (climate normal)
+18°+7°7,9 mm
Sunday 23/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+15°+5°20%
Monday 24/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+15°+6°20%
Tuesday 25/8 Rain (climate normal)
+15°+6°7,5 mm
Wednesday 26/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+15°+6°20%
Thursday 27/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+19°+8°20%
Friday 28/8 Rain (climate normal)
+19°+8°5,3 mm
Saturday 29/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+18°+7°20%
Sunday 30/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+16°+6°20%
Monday 31/8 Rain (climate normal)
+15°+5°4,2 mm
Tuesday 1/9 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+10°+2°20%
Wednesday 2/9 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+10°+2°20%
Thursday 3/9 Rain (climate normal)
+15°+4°6,2 mm
How does the long-range forecast work?
Days 1-14: Fetched live from global weather models (ECMWF, GFS) with statistical correction. Reliability ~85% for days 1-3, ~60% for days 7-10, ~45% for days 11-14.
Days 15-30: A real forecast does not exist that far ahead (a chaotic system). Instead we show season-typical values: the month’s average Tmax/Tmin from SMHI climate normals 1991-2020 (Stockholm baseline with latitude correction for Skellefteå), with mild weekly variation.
Use: "Roughly how warm is it usually in Stockholm in the last week of July?" — a good question for days 15-30. "Will it rain on 27 May?" — no serious forecast can say.