Days 1-14 are a real forecast from global weather models. Days 15-30 are season-typical values based on SMHI climate normals 1991-2020 — good for planning, NOT an exact forecast that far ahead.
30 days — Karlskrona
14 real + 16 synthesised
Thu · Today Clear
+22°+16°7%
Fri · Tomorrow Clear
+20°+15°17%
Saturday 8/8 Clear
+21°+12°6%
Sunday 9/8 Clear
+21°+14°7%
Monday 10/8 Partly cloudy
+23°+16°8%
Tuesday 11/8 Clear
+21°+12°7%
Wednesday 12/8 Clear
+20°+12°4%
Thursday 13/8 Clear
+22°+14°4%
Friday 14/8 Clear
+26°+17°5%
Saturday 15/8 Clear
+23°+14°4%
Sunday 16/8 Clear
+22°+16°3,3 mm
Monday 17/8 Clear
+22°+15°4%
Tuesday 18/8 Clear
+20°+12°4%
Wednesday 19/8 Partly cloudy
+19°+11°8%
Thursday 20/8 Rain (climate normal)
+26°+16°6,2 mm
Friday 21/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+26°+15°20%
Saturday 22/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+27°+16°20%
Sunday 23/8 Rain (climate normal)
+26°+16°8,8 mm
Monday 24/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+24°+14°20%
Tuesday 25/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+22°+13°20%
Wednesday 26/8 Rain (climate normal)
+24°+14°4,6 mm
Thursday 27/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+24°+15°20%
Friday 28/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+28°+17°20%
Saturday 29/8 Rain (climate normal)
+27°+16°4,2 mm
Sunday 30/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+27°+16°20%
Monday 31/8 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+23°+14°20%
Tuesday 1/9 Rain (climate normal)
+16°+9°3,1 mm
Wednesday 2/9 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+17°+10°20%
Thursday 3/9 Partly cloudy (climate normal)
+22°+12°20%
Friday 4/9 Rain (climate normal)
+22°+12°6,6 mm
How does the long-range forecast work?
Days 1-14: Fetched live from global weather models (ECMWF, GFS) with statistical correction. Reliability ~85% for days 1-3, ~60% for days 7-10, ~45% for days 11-14.
Days 15-30: A real forecast does not exist that far ahead (a chaotic system). Instead we show season-typical values: the month’s average Tmax/Tmin from SMHI climate normals 1991-2020 (Stockholm baseline with latitude correction for Karlskrona), with mild weekly variation.
Use: "Roughly how warm is it usually in Stockholm in the last week of July?" — a good question for days 15-30. "Will it rain on 27 May?" — no serious forecast can say.